monetary-policy-july-2023.jpg

All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow as it could possibly make its 13th rate hike in the current tightening cycle.

Economists from major banks have already released their projections for the RBA’s monetary policy decision and only CommBank bet on a hold.

For ANZ, NAB, and Westpac economists, the RBA is set to hike the cash rate by another 25bps to 4.35%.

CommBank senior economist Belinda Allen finally said the lower-than-expected monthly consumer price index (CPI) reading for May has affected the balance of risks, making it more likely for the RBA to hold.

“The risks of a rate hike in July have ebbed and flowed with the local economic data over recent weeks,” she said.

“Parts of the CPI that focused on rents and market services did continue to show some signs of inflation accelerating or remaining elevated — the monthly CPI did show sticky underlying inflation measures, remaining above 6%, as well as acceleration in some services items, including hairdressing, insurance and recreation services.”

“Sticky services inflation and the RBA’s concerns around upside risks to inflation keep the chance of a hike in July in place, albeit it is not our base case.”

The labour force data also contribute to the stronger odds of a hold tomorrow — Ms Allen said while the labour market remains tight, there are signs forward indicators of labour demand are softening.

“Job vacancies continued to fall in the three months to May and are now down 10% from the peak,” she said.

Ms Allen’s views are different from those of her counterparts from other major banks.

NAB economist Taylor Nugent, for instance, said while the relief on the headline measure is “optically useful”, it would offer little comfort to RBA, especially given its concerns about the persistence of inflation across the stickier parts of the basket.

“The RBA’s recent decisions to increase rates after the April pause have been centered around an assessment of upside risks to inflation from sticky services inflation and shifts in wage and price setting behaviour,” he said.

“NAB continues to expect the RBA to raise rates to 4.6% in coming months, penciling in July and August.”

Buying a home or looking to refinance? The table below features home loans with some of the lowest interest rates on the market for owner occupiers.

Update resultsUpdate
Filters
LenderHome LoanInterest Rate Comparison Rate* Monthly Repayment Repayment type Rate Type Offset Redraw Ongoing Fees Upfront Fees Max LVR Lump Sum Repayment Additional Repayments Split Loan Option TagsFeaturesLinkComparePromoted ProductDisclosure
6.04% p.a.
6.06% p.a.
$3,011
Principal & Interest
Variable
$0
$530
90%
4.6 STAR CUSTOMER RATINGS
  • Available for purchase or refinance, min10% deposit needed to qualify.
  • No application, ongoing monthly or annual fees.
  • Dedicated loan specialist throughout the loan application.
 Disclosure
5.99% p.a.
5.90% p.a.
$2,995
Principal & Interest
Variable
$0
$0
80%
  • A low-rate variable home loan from a 100% online lender.
  • Backed by the Commonwealth Bank.
 Disclosure
6.14% p.a.
6.16% p.a.
$3,043
Principal & Interest
Variable
$0
$350
60%
  • Get a tailored quote in as little as 3 minutes
  • Complete your application in 15 minutes
 Disclosure
Important Information and Comparison Rate Warning

Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. Some products will be marked as promoted, featured or sponsored and may appear prominently in the tables regardless of their attributes. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the product provider’s website. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of .

Important Information and Comparison Rate Warning

-

Photo by gettysignature on Canva.

Collections: