Most economists expect the central bank to hold the cash rate steady at 4.10% at its April meeting, which officially kicked off on the final day of March. 

Traders are also favouring a hold, with just 8% predicting a cut as of market close on Friday.

The decision follows a long-awaited 25 basis point rate cut in February - the first in over three years - which most lenders have since passed on to mortgage holders.

While February's move signalled a shift in the monetary cycle, few expect the RBA to deliver back-to-back cuts so soon.

The RBA is widely expected to wait for the impact of the previous cut to appear in the data flow, which has so far remained largely unchanged.

RBA tipped to hold cash rate in April

"Back-to-back cuts in February and April were never on the table," Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said on Wednesday.

"The RBA was too hawkish in its rhetoric last month for that, and the board made clear that last month's cut did not foreshadow more."

Recent releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.4% in the month of February while unemployment held steady at 4.1%.

Ultimately those figures show, while inflation dances within the RBA's target band, the economy remains tightly-wound.

"We don't see the totality of the data as sufficiently soft that the board will make the decision to cut the cash rate," CommBank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said on Thursday.

"We do, however, think the flow of recent data will see the RBA deliver a more dovish message than the general tone of its communication since the February 25 basis point rate cut."

Greater insight could be gained when the ABS unveils the CPI read for the March quarter - a far more comprehensive measure - in late April.

That release will drop shortly before the RBA monetary policy board's following meeting, beginning on 19 May.

April marks the monetary policy board's first meeting

This week's meeting also marks the first gathering of the RBA's restructured monetary policy board.

Under reforms recommended by the 2023 RBA review, the board now includes external monetary policy experts such as economists and academics, alongside the governor, deputy governor, Treasury secretary, and other internal members.

RBA governor Michele Bullock is chairing the board and deputy governor Andrew Hauser is acting as deputy chair.

Attending their first meeting on Monday are economics professor Renée Fry-McKibbin and former Bendigo Bank CEO Marnie Baker.

Economists eye May for second cash rate cut

While a cash rate hold might leave embattled mortgage borrowers feeling sour, a sweet surprise could be lurking in the not-too-distant future.

The majority of big four bank economists expect a second cash rate cut will be handed down in mid-May.

"Looking forward to May, the inflation data will once again be crucial," Ms Ellis said.

If the upcoming quarterly inflation read surprises the RBA on the downside, it could cement three more rate cuts in this year, according to Westpac analysis.

The RBA currently forecasts headline inflation (its preferred measure) will drop to 2.7% annually by mid-year and hold at that level for at least two years.

Among the big four, ANZ remains the most conservative, tipping just one more cut this year, to be handed down in August.


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