More property investors have shifted their sights to Queensland in the face of unaffordable interstate prices as Brisbane has historically worked counter-cyclical to Sydney. However, analysts are split whether history will repeat itself, given the massive surge in Brisbane’s median price.

According to CoreLogic data, the median house price in Brisbane jumped 5.3 per cent in the year to June to $475,000. It could even be heading towards $800,000, said Glenn Piper, director of residential property investment firm Meridian Australia.

“If this is a case of history repeating itself and Brisbane’s values rise again to be 78 per cent of Sydney’s values, Brisbane’s median house price would rise to $813,000 – almost $300,000 higher than its 2015 median house value,” he said.

But in spite of an apparent boom in southeast Queensland, Matusik Property Insights director Michael Matusik said that Brisbane’s annual growth rate remains about half of those in Sydney and Melbourne.

“It’s true that much of southeast Queensland is between 6 and 12 on the property clock. So things should continue improving,” Matusik said. “It is also true that southeast Queensland typically follows the Sydney/Melbourne cycle and receives buyer interest from down south due to price and rental yield differentials. But is it realistic to label southeast Queensland Australia’s next ‘boom’ area?”

Some of the factors needed for a boom to occur include population growth, jobs growth, tight housing supply, hordes of upgraders, and housing prices considered to be a ‘steal.’

“Whilst southeast Queensland values are less than Sydney’s and Melbourne’s, housing isn’t cheap in southeast Queensland when measured against local metrics,” Matusik said. “Housing costs are far from a steal.”

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