The big four bank now expects a 25 basis point rate cut could offer relief to mortgage holders across the nation from as early as 18 February.
ANZ believes upcoming quarterly inflation figures – due to be released on 29 January – will see the RBA's preferred trimmed mean inflation read come in at a three-year low.
ANZ experts anticipate the measure tumbled to 3.2% year-on-year in the three months to December.
The central bank aims to keep underlying inflation between 2% and 3% annually, but will likely need to cut rates before it reaches that range to prevent it falling too low.
"We expect trimmed mean inflation to print at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in [the fourth quarter of 2024], which would be the lowest quarterly result since [the second quarter of] 2021," ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch and head of Australian economics Adam Boyton said.
"We think this will be enough for the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points at its February meeting."
Divergence among big four banks' forecasting
Friday's shift sees ANZ rejoining CommBank in tipping a February rate cut, while NAB and Westpac economists anticipate the first cut to come in May.
Though, like most forecasters, ANZ experts seem to be hedging their bets.
"A hold in February is not off the table, however, if the RBA puts more weight on its concerns that the persistent tightness in the labour market and expected recovery in household spending growth still pose upside risks to inflation," Ms Birch and Mr Boyton said.
The RBA board is set to meet on 17 February, with a decision to be announced the following day.
As of Thursday's market close, 78% of ASX traders were pricing in a rate cut at the February meeting.
How much relief could mortgage holders expect?
But an early start to monetary policy easing doesn't necessarily mean a greater level of relief.
ANZ still forecasts the central bank will hand down just two cuts in 2025 – one in February and another in August – lowering the cash rate from its current level of 4.35% to 3.85% by year's end.
Mortgage holders have been grappling with the highest interest rates in 13 years, with the typical new variable rate mortgage sitting around 6.2% p.a., according to the RBA's November data.
For owner-occupiers, the average new home loan size was approximately $642,000 in September, based on Australian Bureau of Statistic (ABS) figures.
This roughly translates to monthly repayments of $3,900 on a 30-year loan term.
If the cash rate drops by 50 basis points across 2025 (as ANZ forecasts) and lenders pass on cuts in full, repayments on such a mortgage could fall to around $3,700 per month, potentially saving homeowners approximately $2,400 annually.
Wondering how a 25 basis point cash rate cut could impact your home loan repayments? Consult our Mortgage Repayment Calculator
Underlying inflation continues on a downward trajectory
The trimmed mean inflation rate – also called underlying inflation – strips out the impact of volatile or temporary changes in prices, and it's the read the RBA prefers to focus on.
Data released this week showed trimmed mean inflation fell to 3.2% on an annual basis in November, sliding below the RBA's most recent predictions.
While the ABS' monthly inflation reads are considered less comprehensive than its quarterly reads, they provide a more regular beat on price changes.
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