It's a well-established myth in property circles that Australian housing values double every seven to ten years. This belief has stood the test of time – despite not necessarily being accurate. 

How long does it take house prices to double?

"You will often hear it said that property values double every seven to ten years, but that's not actually correct," Metropole founder, property investment advisor, and author Michael Yardney told Your Mortgage.

"There are markets within markets, and some outperform others.

"Then, there are periods in all various housing markets when property values remain flat for many years, even up to a decade."

Previous research by property analyst John Linderman found that, while property prices sometimes doubled in just a handful of years, other times it took decades.

"Australian house prices doubled in just six years from 1968 to 1973, 1974 to 1979, and 1998 to 2003, but they also have taken much longer to double at other times," Mr Yardney said.

"Digging deeper, the main factors causing strong house price growth were economic booms, strong population growth, or high inflation."

"In contrast, periods of low house price growth occurred during economic downturns, or recessions, or when housing finance was difficult to obtain."

Have property prices doubled over the last decade?

According to CoreLogic's Home Value Index (HVI) for March 2025, no single capital city or regional state has seen dwelling values double in the past ten years.

However, Regional NSW came close, recording a 97.7% increase in property values over the decade. Meanwhile, Adelaide experienced a 93.3% rise over the same period.

And some pockets have defied trends entirely, with prices more than doubling in just three years ending December 2024:

Of course, past performance isn't an indicator of future performance, and as the data shows, many of the biggest value gains weren't in the wealthiest city centres.

Instead, these high-growth areas tend to be:

  • On the outskirts of major cities or regional centres

  • Suburbs where property prices were lower to begin with

  • Locations with reasonable access to employment, education, and entertainment

Calculate how long it would take your property's value to double

Wondering if the value of your property or a property you're considering purchasing could double in seven to 10 years? Maybe it could double even faster – or maybe it might leave you waiting longer again.

There's no crystal ball when it comes to property investing. (If there was, we'd all be buying rental homes.)

However, you can make an educated guess by using the Rule of 72.

The Rule of 72: Estimating property price doubling time

The Rule of 72 is a simple mathematical formula that considers annual price growth rate and uses it to work out how long it would take for the value of a property to double. Here it is:

72 / annual growth rate = number of years an investment would take to double in value

Example: Australia-wide property growth rate

According to CoreLogic data, Australia's median property value rose by 3.8% over the year to 28 February 2025.

  • 72 ÷ 4.3% = 18.9 years

At the current growth rate, Australia's median property value would take nearly 19 years to double.

Reverse engineering the Rule of 72

The formula works backwards too.

For example, if a property's value doubled in just five years, you can determine its annual growth rate:

  • 72 ÷ 5 years = 14.4% annual growth rate

The beauty of this formula is that it accounts for compounding growth.

What is compounding property price growth?

Compounding is the phenomenon of realising gains on gains.

Let's say you own a $500,000 home, and its value increases by 5% per year:

  • Year 1: $500,000 → $525,000 (+ $25,000 gain)

  • Year 2: $525,000 → $551,250 (+ $26,250 gain)

  • Year 3: $551,250 → $578,812 (+ $27,562 gain)

Each year, the growth applies to the previous year's total, not just the original price, thereby compounding.

Will house prices in your city double?

No doubt, at this point you'll be searching for your city or suburb's current annual property price growth rate. And let me tell you, you might find it surprising.

Some areas of Australia have seen prices soar in recent times, largely due to an ongoing housing crisis. Other areas are coming off a heated cycle, while some cities didn't see prices take off in quite the same way in recent times.

Here's how fast it would take house prices to double if they were to continue rising at their current annual pace, as of March 2025:

City/area Median dwelling value Annual growth rate Time to double
Sydney $1,186,459 1.1% 65.5 years
Melbourne $772,561 -3.2% -
Brisbane $894,425 9.7% 7.4 years
Adelaide $822,201 11.9% 6 years
Perth $807,933 14.3% 5 years
Hobart $661,544 -0.3% -
Canberra $846,955 -0.9% -
Darwin $506,591 1.5% 48 years
Australia-wide $815,912 3.8% 18.9 years

But remember, past performance doesn't guarantee future performance.

"If the rate of house price growth for the next five years is the same as it was during the last five years, house prices will likely double in the ten years from 2020 to 2029," Mr Yardney said.

"But … there are cycles within cycles and each of our capital cities will perform differently over the next decade, with prices growing more strongly in some locations than others.

"And within each city, some suburbs will experience stronger price growth than other locations and some properties will outperform others."

Australian property forecast: What's next for house prices?

Most experts are in agreement: Australian house price growth will likely cool in the coming years. Though, with the first Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate cut having been handed down, the near term could bring a slight reacceleration.

REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh has noted an uptick in affordability, buyer confidence, and auction clearance rates in the wake of the cut.

"As a result, renewed demand has reaccelerated home price growth, erasing recent declines," she told Your Mortgage.

And looking beyond the interest rate cycle, Ms Creagh said structural issues persist.

"While population growth remains elevated, it has begun to moderate, and Australia continues to grapple with a chronic shortage of new housing supply," she continued.

"Looking ahead, interest rates are expected to fall further and prices are expected to maintain an upward trend.

"However, given affordability challenges, the rate of price growth is likely to be more measured compared to previous easing cycles, resulting in a more moderate pace of gains relative to the strong growth seen in recent years."

Another factor likely to help ease price growth will be the RBA. While the central bank has begun its rate cutting cycle, economists are only anticipating a handful of cuts this year. Indeed, some big bank economists only expect one more cut, while others tip three more. Even three more cuts would leave the cash rate notably higher than the record low realised in 2020 and 2021.

"Additional rate cuts will support modest gains, but the impact will be more measured than in past cycles," Ms Creagh said.

"Realistically, home values doubling in the near future is unlikely, especially given affordability constraints and the more modest growth expected this year."

Photo by Nathan Hurst on Unsplash.

Article originally written by Gerv Tacadena in 2022. Last updated by Brooke Cooper in 2025.

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